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Busting up your Blackjack Plays

You have the jack of diamonds and the two of clubs. The dealer has the four of hearts showing and one card down. Should you draw another card or stand on 12? Probability should determine your decision, but psychology plays a major role.

The best way to look at blackjack is through a basic logical approach. Based on both your hand and what the dealer shows, it is possible to figure the desirability of either taking a hit or standing. A player who navigates his strategies by these calculations has a better chance of leaving the table as a winner.

Now, at first sight, blackjack appears like a loser's game. But why are the blackjack tables always full of people? For one, it gives you an "illusion of control" that allows you to make a variety of decisions like on whether to take a hit or stand, whether to take any of the other options most casinos allow and how much to bet.

In principle, with much practice, a player can utilize his knowledge of probabilities that correlate possible cards that may come up with the next draw and that of the dealer's. In short, your brain has the potential to map out all the probabilities and apply the basic logical approaches in Blackjack. However, thing is, many blackjack players apply strategies that they themselves can't explain rationally.

The thing that holds a player back from getting drawing another card is the fear of busting. Statistically, with a jack of diamonds and a two have give a player a better chance of winning if he draws. But researchers measure that most players stop there. Psychologists explain the natural tendency for a player to fall on this fear to minimize regret. It's better to lose with a hand of lesser sum than to get busted - this seems to be psychologically worse. When you lose to a superior hand, that's the dealers fault, but when you get busted that's the player's fault.

Another reason for this fear is the natural tendency to delay the bad news. This is more of an emotional defense mechanism for the player. For example, if your total is between 12 and 16, your probability of losing is high if you take another hit, but if you decide to stand you can delay the bad news--at least until the dealer plays--and keep alive the hope of winning.

A third reason that helps explain the tendency to play conservatively is what's known as "attentional bias." Getting busted in dramatic is such an overriding emotional force that players are more wary of it from happening. Thus, they forget to concentrate on logical approaches that would give them more edge to the game